Modelling the Potential for Aviation Liberalization in Central Asia

-Market analysis and implications for the One-Belt-One-Road initiative

Xiaowen Fu

Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies, University of Sydney, Australia.

Time: 10:00am-11:00am, July 12

Avenue: Room 725, Tongxun Building, Shahe Campus

Abstract

This study analyzes aviation markets in land-locked countries in Central Asia, namely Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. In these countries, there is no close substitute for the air travel mode due to the tyranny of distance. Aviation markets and their opening can therefore be of special importance to these countries, and become an integral part of the OBOR initiative proposed by the Chinese government. This study uses observed industry panel data spanning from 2007 to 2015 in order to econometrically estimate aviation demands and yields for domestic and international origin-destination markets. Econometric estimates for domestic and international markets are subsequently benchmarked, so that market potential can be quantified and aviation service level in counterfactual liberalized markets can be computed. Our empirical results suggest substantial market potential for airlines to develop the Central Asia – China aviation market in terms of serviceable routes, demands and airline yields. These findings are in sharp contrast to the industry reality that the Central Asia – China market has lagged the market developments to Turkey and UAE during the sample period. Policy and managerial implications are provided as the end of the presentation.

Brief Biography

Dr. Xiaowen Fu is an Associate Professor in the Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies, the University of Sydney. His main research area is transport economics which covers issues such as competition policy and government regulation, efficiency benchmarking, transport demand modelling and industrial organization. He has been the principal investigator of 15 research grants and published more than 40 journal articles. He has been the guest editor of 5 journal special issues, and organized more than 6 major international conferences in the capacity of conference chair. He is on the editorial boards of three journals including Transportation Research – Part B, and is an editor of the journal of Transport Policy, associate editor of the book series “Advances in Airlines Economics”. Dr. Fu has provided advisory and economic modelling services to organizations such as the Boeing Commercial Aircraft, New Zealand Commerce Commission, Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, Government of British Columbia in Canada, Australian Competition Tribunal, Hong Kong Civil Aviation Department, Hong Kong Transport and Housing Bureau, Japan Rail (East), and OECD. He is a member of the Air Transport Research Society (ATRS), International Maritime Economists Association (IAME), the World Conference of Transportation Research (WCTR) and the American Economics Association.