主题：Dependent failure behavior modeling for risk and reliability: A systematic and critical literature review

主讲人：曾志国 副教授

时间：7月4日（周二）上午10:00

地点：清水河校区主楼C1-213

专家介绍：

Zhiguo ZENG received the Ph.D. degree in reliability engineering from Beihang university in 2016. He is currently an assistant professor at CentraleSupélec, Université Paris-Saclay, France. His research focuses on the characterization and modeling of the failure/repair/maintenance behavior of components, complex systems and their reliability, maintainability, prognostics, safety, vulnerability and security. Dr. ZENG is an author/co-author of more than 50 papers in highly recognized international journals and conferences (including 32 journal papers indexed in Web of Science). He is editorial board member of International Journal of Data Analysis Techniques and Strategies, and the leading guest editor of the special issue on “Dependent failure modeling” of the journal Applied Science. He is the co-head of the master program “Risk, Resilience and Engineering Management” in Universite Paris Saclay. He is responsible for master courses of Data Analytics for Risk and Reliability, Predictive Maintenance, Principles of failure and various other courses.

报告内容简介：

On the evening of 31 May 2009, flight AF447 took off as usual in the beautiful sunset of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, intended to provide its 216 passengers with a nice and comfortable journey to a city of love and romance, Paris – But the love and romance never arrive. Shortly after taking off, the plane crashed into the Atlantic ocean, killing all the 228 people (including 12 crew members) onboard. The tragedy shocked the entire world, as modern aircrafts like AF447, and modern complex engineering systems in general, have been designed with a large number of redundant safety systems connected in a “defensive-in-depth” manner. Such accidents could occur only if all these safety systems fail, which, according to classical reliability theory, is highly unlikely, given the assumption that the failures of the safety systems are independent from one another.

In this talk, we will start from this accident, analyze its cause, and identify dependency as a key element leading to this tragedy. Then, we proceed with a systematic and critical literature review on dependent failure behavior modeling in risk and reliability. The main results of the critical literature review include: First, we summarize the dependent failure behavior in different system hierarchies, i.e., failure mechanism level, component level, system level and systems-of-systems level. In each level, the main dependent failure behavior from literature is discussed with examples. Second, we develop a classification framework for the dependent failure behavior models. Depending on whether the dependency mechanism is explicitly considered, we broadly classified the existing models into statistical dependency models and mechanistic dependency models. Statistical dependency models do not explicitly consider the dependency mechanisms but model them in terms of statistical association among the variables, and can be further divided into lifetime distribution models, system state models and degradation process models. Mechanistic dependency models consider the dependency mechanisms explicitly, and can be further divided into failure interaction models and failure propagation models. The most frequently-used models in each category are critically reviewed, based on which we identify five challenging problems the current dependency models face, give our perspectives on their possible solutions, and discuss future research opportunities.